The start of the year 2022 is marked by bearish signs. The fact that Bitcoin (BTC) had to permanently give up its key support at 45,800 USD also left a clear mark on Altcoins. The key crypto currency currently has to defend the USD 40,000 area in order to avert a bear market in the coming trading months. The recent weakness in the traditional financial market is also increasingly affecting the crypto sector. Investors are currently switching from growth stocks to risk-averse cyclical stocks and are thus also parting with crypto holdings. The rising interest rates on US government bonds are also fueling this trend, which is why investors are currently increasingly on the sidelines and are likely to reassess the situation.
Best price development among the top 10 altcoins
The price of Ripple fell in the past trading week with a loss of around 12 percent as much as Bitcoin, and can therefore resist the correction a little better than other top 10 Altcoins. In contrast to many other altcoins, the XRP rate did not fall back to the low of December 4, 2021. However, this trend should not hide the fact that the XRP rate has also corrected sharply in the last few weeks of trading.
The XRP price is also below all moving average lines and threatens to lose further ground if the overall market weakness continues. As long as Ripple cannot sustainably regain the resistance at USD 0.89, further price drops threaten.
Bullishe Variante (Ripple)
In anticipation of an early end and possibly a positive outcome of the SEC lawsuit in the USA, Ripple can assert itself somewhat better than comparable top 10 Altcoins. The buy side must now make efforts to push the XRP rate back above USD 0.78 in the direction of the EMA20 (red) at USD 0.82. Only when this moving average is recaptured, a subsequent increase into the light blue resistance zone between USD 0.86 and USD 0.90 should be planned. In addition to the 38 Fibonacci retracement, the EMA50 (orange) and the supertrend in the daily chart also run here.
In order to break through this zone dynamically, however, enough buying momentum must be built up on the part of the bulls. If a recapture succeeds, another strong technical hurdle awaits at 0.95 USD. The EMA200 (blue) and the MA200 (green) can be found at this brand. In the first attempt, the Ripple course should fail here. If, contrary to expectations, the buyer side can also break through this cross-resistance, a breakthrough to USD 1.05 is initially conceivable. Here the red superordinate downtrend line can be found paired with a horizontal resist. So that this area of resistance can also be broken through in the long term, the crypto key currency Bitcoin must also initiate a bullish countermovement.
Chart brightening imaginable
Should the buyer manage to break out of the daily closing price above the USD 1.05, Ripple could rise in the direction of the orange zone between USD 1.20 and USD 1.28. Only when Ripple breaks through the high of 1.34 USD sustainably will there be further upside potential in the direction of the high of September 6th at 1.42 USD. In the short term, this resistance is to be seen as the maximum price target on the upside. Should this range be skipped in the medium term, a further trend dynamic towards USD 1.58 is conceivable. If there is no clear rebound to the south here either, a march through to the purple resistance zone cannot be ruled out in the coming months. The maximum price target that can be derived remains unchanged at USD 1.74.
Bearishe Variante (Ripple)
On the other hand, if the bears can cap the XRP price below the EMA20 and sell off below the low of USD 0.71, a price drop back to USD 0.64 or even USD 0.60 is likely. If the Ripple price falls below the 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 0.60, and then forms a new low below USD 0.57, the lows of June and July 2021 at USD 0.51 come back into focus the investor. Here the bulls are likely to come back on the floor again to avert the final relapse to lower prices.
If this attempt fails, a sale into the blue support area between USD 0.40 and USD 0.44 is no longer excluded. Should the entire crypto market continue to weaken in the coming months, a drop in price towards USD 0.36 and a maximum of USD 0.32 is also conceivable at Ripple. Investors should continue to monitor the current situation from the sidelines and wait for a bottom to form. New impulses can be expected from the court ruling at the latest.
The indicator (Ripple)
The RSI indicator as well as the MACD continue to show sell signals. This means that a further course correction is more likely from the indicator side. A look at the weekly chart confirms the bearish picture for Ripple. Even on a weekly basis, both indicators show sell signals, which reinforces the bearish picture for XRP.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins
After a recent strong performance, Avalanche is currently having to bow to the weakness in the overall market and is losing 24 percent of its value in a weekly comparison. Avalanche is now trading well below its moving average lines EMA20 (red) and EMA50 (orange). Whether the current price weakness, the AVAX price is still relatively good. As long as the bulls can defend the USD 78.69 mark, the chart image for Avalanche is still to be assessed neutrally. In order for the chart to brighten up again, the first thing to do is to dynamically recapture the red zone of resistance.
Bullishe Variante (Avalanche)
The price weakness on the entire crypto market also increasingly affected Avalanche this week. After a relapse to USD 78.72, Avalanche is currently trading just under 10 percent above its weekly low, but as long as the USD 98 area cannot be recaptured, further price drops threaten. If, contrary to expectations, the bulls can pull the AVAX price back above this resistance in a timely manner and also overcome the 61 Fibonacci retracement at USD 103.67, the supertrend and the red downtrend line as the first target on the upside await at USD 113.
If the bulls can break through this area, new targets will activate at USD 117.52 and USD 122.85. Only when the 78 Fibonacci retracement can be recaptured is an immediate retest of the December high at USD 127.34 conceivable. The cops will fail here at the first attempt. Only a daily closing price above this resistance enables a new attempt towards the all-time high at USD 147.28. If Avalanche can then bite into this area and the overall market forms a bottom, an increase to USD 178.22 and a maximum of USD 191.12 must be planned in the medium term. For the time being, higher rates above USD 200 are not expected, the crypto market is currently too weak.
Bearishe Variante (Avalanche)
At Avalanche, too, the seller side has currently taken over the helm. In contrast to its competition, the AVAX chart still has a relatively strong effect, but Avalanche will not be able to completely escape the persistent price weakness of Bitcoin and Co. If the bears manage to sell the AVAX rate below the weekly low in the direction of the December lows at USD 75.65, a directional decision can be expected for the coming trading weeks. If Avalanche falls sustainably below the green zone, the correction extends immediately to the EMA200 (blue) in the area at USD 69.72. The cops are likely to offer more resistance here. However, if Avalanche falls below this strong support, a correction expansion to the cross support from the 23 Fibonacci retracement and MA200 (green) is likely.
In the area of USD 60.67, however, the buyer side should urgently act in order to avert another sell-off back to the October low of 2021 at USD 51.41. In this area at the latest, the bulls will have to stabilize the course in order not to jeopardize the upward trend. If this attempt fails, Avalanche is likely to break away significantly to the south when the USD 47.64 is given up and target the orange support area. Possible targets are USD 42.93 and USD 37.14. In the future, if the overall market weakness persists, Avalanche could also target the maximum bearish target range between USD 32.21 and USD 33.11. However, as long as Avalanche can hold its own above the EMA200, there is still a chance that the trend will continue on the upside.
The price setback at Avalanche in the last few days of trading also clouded the picture for the indicators. Both the RSI and the MACD indicator have now generated short signals. As long as the RSI indicator cannot rise back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55, investors should wait on the sidelines for the time being and watch the development closely in the coming trading days.
Stability of the top 10
Bitcoin’s continued price weakness pulled all of the top 10 Altcoins south again this week. All ten cryptocurrencies show a double-digit discount. With a price drop of 24 percent, Avalanche (AVAX) tops the list, followed by Solana (SOL) and Terra (LUNA) with 22 percent price losses each. Also the Binance Coin (BNB) as well as Polkadot (DOT) and Ethereum (ETH) tend to be weak and lose almost 20 percentage points each. With only 13 percent price minus, only Ripple (XRP) stands out a bit positively and falls as strongly as Bitcoin itself. The even slipping of all top 10 Altcoins does not lead to any change in the ranking this week.
Winner and Loser of the Week
The second trading week in the new year 2022 is not a good star either. The weakness of the overall financial market was already pointed out in the previous week’s analysis. Over the weekend, the market as a whole slipped more significantly south again. The majority of the top 100 altcoins only recovered from their weekly lows at the end of the week and thus followed the crypto key currency Bitcoin, which was able to parry a slide below the psychologically important USD 40,000 mark for the time being. With a look at the 100 largest crypto currencies, however, the market continues to be weak for the most part at the beginning of the week. Only five cryptocurrencies show a price increase compared to last week. At the top is the Internet Computer (ICP), the underperformer of 2021 with a 33 percent price increase.
The data Oracle provider Chainlink (LINK) is also starting the new calendar year bullishly after a mixed previous year and gaining 25 percent. Osmosis (OSMO) is again strong with a 24 percent increase in value and can thus build on its strong previous week. The long list of underperformers is headed by the Spell Token (SPELL) with a 37 percent drop in price, followed by Gala (GALA) with a 30 percent drop in price. The play to earn game Axie Infinity (AXS) and Loopring, each with a 25 percent discount, are also weak. The Celcius Network (CEL) and the Curve DAO Token (CRV) are also tending towards the south with a price decline of 23 percent each.
Around 20 top 100 Altcoins lose more than 20 percent in a weekly comparison, and almost two-thirds of the underperformers also lose double-digit value. Although the Bitcoins price slide below USD 45,800 led to significant price drops on the overall market, many top 100 Altcoins have at least partially broken away from their weekly lows in the last 36 hours of trading. For a clearer calming of the broad Altcoin mass, Bitcoin must first confirm the bottoming out in the area of 40,000 USD.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.88 euros.
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Bitcoins is tumbling towards USD 40,000 and pulling Altcoins south with it