Bitcoin (BTC): course reversal is in the starting blocks
BTC-Course: $43,652 (previous week: $46,270)
Resistances/Goals: $43,800, $44,851, $45,474, $45,846, $47,070, $48,222, $49,487, $51,307, $52,125, $53,005, $54,077, $55,817, $56,979, $57,901, $59,778, $61,771, $63,189 , $64,896, $66,299, $67,416, $69,000, $70,856, $76,472, $77,678, $85,563, $87,090, $89,982, $100,259, $114,961
Supports: $42,542, $41,438, $40,585, $39,559, $37,389, $36,643, $34,899, $30,000, $28,810, $26,170
The Bitcoin course is alive! After weeks of selling and falling back to the repeatedly mentioned tear-off edge at USD 39,559, the key cryptocurrency showed a clear counter-reaction at the beginning of the week. As a result, a reversal formation formed, which was confirmed yesterday, Tuesday, January 11th. The US inflation figures of 7 percentage points presented in the early afternoon were in line with analysts’ expectations. For the time being, all the negative effects of a misguided monetary policy on the part of the central banks seem to have been priced in.
A renewed consistency test of the key support area between USD 42,542 and USD 40,585 is conceivable at any time, but as long as Bitcoin stabilizes above USD 40,000 at the daily closing price, a bullish countermovement to at least USD 45,846 is to be planned for the time being. Here it should be decided whether another bearish downward movement will start or whether the bulls can take over the helm again in the long term. The fact that the technology index Nasdaq (NDX) was also able to initiate a strong bullish reversal and thus averted a major correction for the time being also plays into the hands of the crypto sector.
Bullish Scenario (Bitcoin Price)
Bitcoin bulls turned things around at the last second and prevented a dip below the psychologically important USD 40,000. Although the significant sell-off has certainly left its mark and caused some price drops in the altcoins, the reversal at the beginning of the week gives hope for a sustained price recovery in the coming trading weeks. It is not uncommon for the financial market to do exactly the opposite of what market participants anticipated.
The fact that the RSI indicator also turned up at an important low at 28.25 and the divergence indicator also formed a higher low despite lower price lows further strengthens the initially bullish view of the BTC chart. However, the oversold situation should be retested in the near future. Investors must now do everything possible to stabilize the BTC price above USD 43,800 at the end of the day in order to start a rise towards the EMA20 (red) at USD 44,851 and prevent a new sell-off. If this mark is broken through immediately, a preliminary decision for the next trading days will be made between USD 45,474 and USD 45,846.
A recapture of this strong resistance zone should lead Bitcoin directly back to the USD 47,070. From this area onwards, however, bears are expected to resist clearly. The green resistance area combines several strong resistance lines. The supertrend is found at USD 47,600. A cross resist of MA200 (green), EMA50 (orange) and horizontal resistance also runs just above this at USD 48,222. A direct break in this zone is not to be expected, at least in the first attempt. Rather, the bulls have to get stuck there and successively form higher lows to soften the resistance. If Bitcoin can then settle above USD 48,222 and also recapture the EMA200 (blue) at USD 49,134, the chart image will continue to brighten. An increase into the blue zone with price targets of USD 50,790 and USD 51,307 should follow.
The road to $60,000
If there is no sustained reversal below USD 48,222 here either, investors will do everything in their power to attack the interim high of December 27, 2021 at USD 52,124. A successful recapture of this resistance level then moves the zone between USD 53,005 and USD 54,077 into focus as a target area. The upper Bollinger band is also found here, which should initially have a price-limiting effect. If the bulls develop enough buying power to clear this zone as well, Bitcoin will immediately jump to $55,817. First investors will want to pocket profits here. If Bitcoin can also break out of this price mark in the medium term, it will be decided in the area of USD 57,901 at the latest whether this upward movement is only of a technical nature or whether the chances of an increase towards a new all-time high continue to increase. In addition to the horizontal resistance, the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the complete downward movement from the all-time high also runs here.
The chart image brightens
A breakout of this resistance would have important chart technical character. Bitcoin should then target USD 59,778. If Bitcoin does not bounce back to the south in the long term and subsequently also overcomes USD 61,771, the chance of an attack towards an all-time high increases significantly. On a breakout, Bitcoin is likely to head straight into the $63,189 to $64,896 zone. If the historical high of November 15 at USD 66,299 can then be broken, a march through USD 67,416 towards the high of USD 69,000 is likely. Investors should keep the zone between USD 57,901 and USD 59,778 in mind as a possible price target.
Bearish Scenario (Bitcoin Price)
The bears hit their first overarching price target. After the seller sent the BTC price down significantly last weekend and at the beginning of the week missed the tearing edge at USD 39,559 by just a few USD, the bulls came back onto the floor with all their might. The buyer side thus prevented a relapse into the crypto winter predicted by many market players for the time being. Even if the buyer side has now taken back the scepter for a short time and was able to start a recovery rally as long as Bitcoin is capped below USD 48,222, a new sell-off by the bears can be expected at any time. The bears are likely to attempt a fresh sell-off in the USD 45,474 to USD 45,846 range in the near term. If this zone reverses towards USD 42,406 and breaks through it again, the bulls should be on the alert between USD 41,438 and USD 40,585.
The danger of a widening correction continues to increase
A dip below this support zone makes a retest of the weekly low at $39,960 likely. However, if the buy-side fails to defend this support, and Bitcoin is trading below this support at the weekly close, the trend momentum threatens to accelerate southward. The crypto winter scenario would therefore be up to date again immediately. Bitcoin is likely to correct immediately to the 23 Fibonacci retracement at $37,389. If there is no reversal here, the sell-off will momentarily widen towards USD 36,643 and USD 34,899.
This makes a correction to the psychologically important USD 30,000 mark or below much more likely. A break of USD 34,899 takes Bitcoin straight up to USD 30,000. If the bulls cannot defend this price mark either and the 2021 low of USD 28,795 is abandoned, the correction will extend at least to the light green zone between USD 26,170 and USD 27,562. The retest of the breakout level at USD 20,000 expected by many investors would also be within reach.
Bitcoin dominance: 40 percent and no end
Bitcoin dominance has been able to pull its neck out of the noose again in the past few trading days. For the time being, a break of 39.56 percent could be averted again. The clear setback on the overall market prompted investors to switch from altcoins back to the crypto key currency. Investors therefore reacted with increasing risk aversion to the sometimes significant price declines. Once again, a preliminary decision seems to have been postponed. As long as BTC dominance can continue to stabilize above 40.03 percent at the end of the week, investors will have to watch closely whether Bitcoin can use the area around the yearly low as a starting point for a renewed liberation of its market power. The key mark on the upside to keep an eye on here is the 41.13 percent mark.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
The BTC dominance is still undefeated. So the game of patience continues. Bitcoin dominance once again defended the 40 percent range. However, it subsequently failed to overcome the cross-resistance of EMA50 (orange) and the upper Bollinger Band at 41.13 percent. The market power of the key cryptocurrency is currently slipping back to the lower edge of the range, leaving all options open again. If it is possible to break out of the blue support zone in the coming days and also break through the super trend at 41.44 percent, there would initially be room towards 42.28 percent. Market dominance failed here as early as December.
If this resistance is also recaptured without a sustained setback, the orange resistance zone between 42.99 percent and 43.36 percent will come into focus again. A rebound is to be planned in particular at the 43.36 percent, since the MA200 (green) also runs here. A breakout above this, on the other hand, should immediately lead BTC dominance towards the red resist zone. In addition to the horizontal resistance area, the EMA200 (blue) can also be found here. If Bitcoin can expand its outperformance against the altcoins and also leave the 44.25 percent behind, the bottoming out should be completed in the short term. A further increase into the yellow zone between 45.08 percent and 45.70 percent is then to be planned. A renewed strength in the Bitcoin dominance would also enable an increase to the October high of 47.72 percent. This resistance level is to be seen as the maximum upside target for the coming period.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
Once again, the breakthrough below 39.56 percent has been averted and a preliminary decision has been postponed again. Only when the BTC dominance falls back below 40.03 percent at the end of the day does this mark come into focus again. If there is a dynamic relapse below this support mark as a result, a retest of the previous week’s low at 39.30 percent is likely. Here again resistance is to be expected. If the BTC dominance cannot stabilize at this mark and bounce off decisively to the north, a further falling dominance should be planned. Then the trend movement threatens to expand up to 37.67 percent.
A last attempt should be made here to avert the final crash of BTC dominance towards 30 percent. If there is no dynamic upward movement back above 40 percent in this area, the psychologically important 30 percent mark could be targeted in the coming months. Accordingly, the Altcoin season hoped for by many market players could also start in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.88.
Cryptocurrency tax filing made easy
In the BTC-EHO guide, we show you the best tools for creating crypto tax reports automatically and easily.
To the guide
We wish to say thanks to the writer of this short article for this awesome material
Is Bitcoin Correction Over?